The Core Problem that is being solved
Traditional prediction markets suck in two ways:
- Order Book Markets (like a stock exchange)
- Need constant liquidity
- Need market makers actively buying/selling
- Pain in the ass to maintain
- AMM Markets (like Uniswap, using LMSR - Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule)
- Need someone to put up a big pile of money upfront (the liquidity parameter
b)
- The creator takes on "bounded loss" - they can lose money
- Complex math to maintain prices
- Capital inefficient
DePredict's solution: F**k both of those. Let's separate the accounting from the price discovery.
How DePredict Actually Works
Part 1: The Vault
Think of it like a betting pool:
- There are TWO vaults for each market: YES vault and NO vault
- I pick a side and deposit USDC
- I get a compressed NFT (cNFT) as a receipt
What's in the cNFT:
- market_id: Which market is this?
- outcome_side: YES or NO?
- shares: How many $1 units you own
- stake_amount: How much USDC you put in
- creation_time: When you entered
Example:
- I bet $10 on YES
- I get a cNFT with
shares = 10
- If YES wins, each share pays $1
- So I can redeem for $10 + my cut of the NO vault
At settlement:
- If my side wins: You get $1 per share PLUS your portion of the losing side's money